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SFG 1 / LAD 3
SFGSan Francisco Giants29%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers71%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
LADHome starterJack DreyerConfirmed
SFG29%ML +225
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
LAD71%ML -278

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts

Model (73.9%) and market (70.5% implied) essentially agree on LAD, and the profile supports it: 95-60, 6.3 RPG against a 64-91 Giants club at .388 OPS. But the Dodgers' starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.85 ERA over 151.7 IP is not a resolved arm), so I cap this at standard and pass on the total, where the model's 9.25 sits well above the 8.0 line without a known pitcher behind it.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K2.4Actual 6 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +110 bovada / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%over
O 2.544%over
O 3.523%over
O 4.511%over
O 5.54%over
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jack DreyerLAD starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.537%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+225 / -278SFG / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total