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WSN 5 / LAD 6
WSNWashington Nationals40%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
LADHome starterTyler GlasnowConfirmed
WSN40%ML +155
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
LAD60%ML -188

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Both starters under 3.50 ERA, with Glasnow's 0.81 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 51.7 IP the sharper profile. Model's 8.42 total sits 1.4 runs above the 7.0 market line despite the ace matchup and LAD's modest 3.9 RPG offense; I side with the market and lean under. On the side, model (60.4%) trails market (66.5%), so LAD is defensible but not a value play.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betmgm / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Tyler GlasnowLAD starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 draftkings / U -141 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 7.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -188WSN / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total