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PIT 3 / LAD 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates32%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers68%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline68%Model 20260817_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
PIT32%ML +220
Base model probability68%Moneyline only
LAD68%ML -270

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts

Model 67.9% and market 69.7% converge on LAD, so no real comparison, just a defensible side. Skubal's 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.69 K/9 over 113.7 IP is a clear step up on Jones (4.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 64 IP). Model's 8.78 total sits well above the 7.5 line and looks like it underweights the Skubal start; I'll take under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +121 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K8.2Actual 11 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +107 betrivers / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.570%over
O 7.557%over
O 8.544%over
O 9.532%over
O 10.522%over
O 11.514%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+220 / -270PIT / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -109
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total