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MIL 6 / LAD 2
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers56%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline56%Model 20260810_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
MIL44%ML +160
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
LAD56%ML -192

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts

Both starters are elite: Skubal 2.93 ERA/0.93 WHIP over 107.7 IP, Henderson 2.88/0.91 with 11.0 K/9. Model's 8.82 total sits 1.8 runs above the 7.0 market line, which looks like a structural miss on the ace matchup; under is the side. Market at 62.6% on LAD is more aggressive than the model's 55.5%, but Skubal's larger workload sample supports the home side.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +112 fanduel / U -116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -192MIL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -2 / U -123
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total