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MIL 4 / LAD 1
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers47%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
LADHome starterJustin WrobleskiConfirmed
MIL53%ML -128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAD47%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts

Model (53.3% MIL) and market (-118, ~53%) agree, so no comparison dispute on the side; Misiorowski's 1.76 ERA, 13.8 K/9 and 0.74 WHIP is the cleanest comparison on the board against Wrobleski's 3.44. The model's 9.14-run total is 1.6 above the 7.5 line and looks structurally wrong: both offenses list 3.6 RPG and this is an ace-vs-solid matchup. Under.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K8.2Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -122 fanduel / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.569%under
O 7.556%under
O 8.543%under
O 9.532%under
O 10.522%under
O 11.514%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -164 draftkings / U +138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-128 / +106MIL / LAD moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -102 / U -119
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total