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KCR 5 / LAD 6
KCRKansas City Royals47%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers53%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterNoah CameronConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
KCR47%ML +230
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
LAD53%ML -285

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time20.1 pts

Model's 52.9% on LAD is far off the market's 73% and hard to justify: Skubal (2.81 ERA, 10.69 K/9, 0.92 WHIP) faces a KCR lineup posting a .518 OPS, while Cameron sits at 4.37 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. Side with the market on LAD, though -296 offers no price value. Model's 9.02 total is 1.5+ above the 7.5 line and looks structurally wrong given Skubal and KC's punchless offense; lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Noah CameronKCR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 fanatics / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -113 fanduel / U -104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.572%over
O 6.558%under
O 7.544%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+230 / -285KCR / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -113 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total