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scheduled
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleProbable
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoProbable
BOS45%ML +141
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
LAD55%ML -170

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.5 pts

Model has LAD 54.8%, market implies 59.5% — meaningful gap favoring Dodgers more than model does. Yamamoto (2.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) vs Tolle (3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is ace-quality on one side only; ace_matchup flag is marginal here. Model total 8.63 vs market 7.5 is a 1.13-run gap; LAD offense (4.9 RPG, .743 OPS) supports over but absent park factor data I can't validate the model's confidence.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -140 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.9
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 betmgm / U -119 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.592%
O 3.583%
O 4.569%
O 5.553%
O 6.538%
O 7.525%
O 8.515%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+141 / -170BOS / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+129)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total