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scheduled
SEASeattle Mariners55%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryan WooProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LADHome starterRoki SasakiProbable
SEA55%ML +130
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
LAD45%ML -156

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap13.5 pts

Model picks SEA 55.2% but market has LAD at 58.3%—an 8pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. LAD is 68-40 vs SEA 53-56; model picking the worse record is offense_defense_mismatch. Both starters mid-4s ERA, decent K rates. Market knows something model doesn't; defer to LAD but lean only.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K4.9
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -154 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.571%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.523%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Roki SasakiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.8
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.524%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+130 / -156SEA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +102
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total