MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / LAD 12SDPSan Diego Padres44%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers56%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterRandy VásquezConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
LADHome starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
SDP44%ML +166
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
LAD56%ML -200
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +141 draftkings / U -164 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Roki SasakiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -140 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%under
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+166 / -200SDP / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-103)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total