MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / LAD 9LAALos Angeles Angels36%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers64%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJack Kochanowicz
Model pickLAD moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
LAA36%ML +280
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
LAD64%ML -357
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.9 pts
Market has LAD at 75% vs model's 64%, an 11-point gap. Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 40 IP is brutal but LAA offense is elite (.860 OPS). Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA on just 60 IP means sample is thin. Model likely underweighting LAA's offense vs market's sharper read. Lean LAD but don't follow model's confidence.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+280 / -357LAA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total