MLB / mlb / live
PHI 4 / LAD 3PHIPhiladelphia Phillies52%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús Luzardo
Model pickPHI moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterRoki Sasaki
PHI52%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
LAD48%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts
Model picks PHI 52% but market has LAD at 54%. PHI's 2.6 RPG (.570 OPS) is historically weak; offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model fades the vastly superior LAD lineup. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP screams small sample. Sasaki stats missing but LAD offense alone justifies home lean. Total 9.03 vs market 8.5 is tight; lean over given LAD's 5.4 RPG.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125PHI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total