MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / LAD 5SFGSan Francisco Giants40%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterEmmet Sheehan
SFG40%ML +146
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
LAD60%ML -176
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.9 pts
Sheehan has logged only 3.1 IP across 10 'starts' (likely bulk reliever role) with a 10.8 ERA. Roupp has no recorded stats despite 10 starts. No park factor available. SFG's .388 OPS is implausibly low for 43 games (likely data error). Model and market align on LAD -167 vs 60% implied, but pitcher data is structurally unreliable for both sides.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+146 / -176SFG / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total