MLB / mlb / live
ATL 1 / LAD 3ATLAtlanta Braves52%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterEmmet Sheehan
ATL52%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
LAD48%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.4 pts
Sheehan's 10.8 ERA over 3.1 IP is catastrophic small sample—likely opener or injury return. Sale's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP equally noisy but ATL offense (5.3 RPG, .789 OPS) creates real comparison vs compromised LAD starter. Market agrees (ATL slight dog at +107). Model total 8.88 vs market 8.0 looks high given Sale's form. Take ATL and lean under.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -120ATL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total