MLB / mlb / live
CHC 0 / LAD 6CHCChicago Cubs56%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers44%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota Imanaga
Model pickCHC moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
LADHome starterJustin Wrobleski
CHC56%ML +110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
LAD44%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.9 pts
Model picks CHC at 55.7% but market has LAD at 54.3%. Missing Wrobleski season stats creates uncertainty despite 10 starts. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise. CHC's 6.6 RPG offense is strong but market disagrees with model's away lean. Total 9.35 vs market 9.5 suggests slight under, though missing park factor limits conviction.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130CHC / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -115
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total