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SEA 1 / LAA 2
SEASeattle Mariners49%
LAALos Angeles Angels51%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline51%Model 20260914_auto
LAAHome starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
SEA49%ML -170
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
LAA51%ML +142

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.0 pts

Model's 50.9% on LAA is ~12 points above the market's 38.9% implied, and it's picking the worse team on both record (57-93 vs 70-81) and scoring (3.9 vs 5.7 RPG). Gilbert's 3.72 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.78 K/9 over 172 IP clearly outclasses Johnson's 5.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP. Slight under lean: Gilbert vs a 3.9 RPG offense in a neutral park.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K7.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 betmgm / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%over
O 7.542%under
O 8.529%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -146 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-170 / +142SEA / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total