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NYY 1 / LAA 10
NYYNew York Yankees40%
LAALos Angeles Angels60%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterElmer RodríguezProbable
Model pickLAA moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
LAAHome starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
NYY40%ML -123
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
LAA60%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.7 pts

Model at 60.4% on a 52-85 LAA club versus a 78-59 NYY team scoring 5.7 R/G is a 17-point gap from the market's 43.6%, and it picks the worse record and worse offense. Ureña's 2.94 ERA is a real comparison over Rodríguez (4.70 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 23 IP), but that is already reflected in NYY only being -135. Rodríguez's walk/hit profile against that offense nudges the total over 8.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +123 betrivers / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-123 / +105NYY / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total