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PHI 5 / LAA 3
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
LAALos Angeles Angels54%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
LAAHome starterReid DetmersConfirmed
PHI46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
LAA54%ML +104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.2 pts

Model's 54.4% on LAA is over 10 points above the market's 44.2%, and it is backing the worse team (52-82, 4.1 RPG) against a 74-60 club scoring 5.7. Detmers (3.62 ERA, 10.39 K/9, 1.06 WHIP) versus Painter (6.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) is a genuine comparison, but the market at only -132 already prices that in. Slight over lean given Painter's WHIP and Philadelphia's run production in a neutral park.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +121 draftkings / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 fanduel / U -130 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +104PHI / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total