sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

KCR 0 / LAA 1
KCRKansas City Royals55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
LAAHome starterReid DetmersConfirmed
KCR55%ML +138
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML -161

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.7 pts

Model has KCR at 55% while the market implies 58.6% for LAA — a ~14-point gap I can't justify. Detmers' 10.4 K/9 and 1.10 WHIP outclass Dobnak's 4.75 K/9, and Dobnak's 2.00 ERA over just 36 IP with a 1.33 WHIP looks like unsustainable contact luck. Side with the market on LAA; model's 9.38 total sits well above the 8.0 line with a neutral park (1.01) and a 3.5 RPG home offense.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betrivers / U -148 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +119 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -161KCR / LAA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -116
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total