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HOU 6 / LAA 4
HOUHouston Astros55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterTatsuya ImaiConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LAAHome starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
HOU55%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA45%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Model sees HOU 55% vs market 51% — minimal comparison. Ureña's 2.78 ERA in 87 IP is legitimate but LAA offense (.860 OPS) creates run support variance. Imai's 5.59 ERA argues against HOU but model leans on away offense metrics. Total at 8.7 vs market 8.5 is too tight to have a view in neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -145 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%under
O 2.592%under
O 3.582%under
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 fanduel / U +105 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -110HOU / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total