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DET 7 / LAA 0
DETDetroit Tigers58%
LAALos Angeles Angels42%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTarik SkubalProbable
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260713_auto
LAAHome starterGrayson RodriguezProbable
DET58%ML -208
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
LAA42%ML +172

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly. Model at 57.6% vs market's 63.6% undervalues the pitching gap. Total: model 9.19 vs market 8.0 reflects Rodriguez's vulnerability; lean over given LAA bats have .86 OPS.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tarik SkubalDET starter / away
Projected K7.4Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +105 betrivers / U -102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 8.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.573%over
O 6.560%over
O 7.546%over
O 8.533%over
O 9.522%under
O 10.514%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betmgm / U -164 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-208 / +172DET / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total