sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

DET 2 / LAA 1
DETDetroit Tigers45%
LAALos Angeles Angels55%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
LAAHome starterReid DetmersConfirmed
DET45%ML -116
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAA55%ML -103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts

Model slightly favors LAA (55.1%) vs market's DET comparison (51.2% implied). Melton's 1.82 ERA in 49 IP is elite but small sample. Detmers' 4.39 ERA and LAA's weak offense (3.9 RPG, .860 OPS) argue against home side. DET 4.7 RPG despite .582 OPS suggests context or data quality issue. Market lean to DET seems reasonable; passing on total at 8.5 with neutral park.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 bovada / U +120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -121 betrivers / U +105 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-116 / -103DET / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total