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BOS 8 / LAA 1
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
LAALos Angeles Angels53%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
LAAHome starterSam AldegheriConfirmed
BOS47%ML -175
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
LAA53%ML +146

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.2 pts

Model has LAA at 53% but market strongly favors BOS at 60%. Gray's 2.69 ERA over 83.7 IP is legitimate ace form vs Aldegheri's 4.85 in limited sample (29.7 IP). Model picking the worse record (.409) and worse offense (.86 vs .736 OPS) team. SHAP features lean home but structural comparison is BOS.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Sam AldegheriLAA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 draftkings / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-175 / +146BOS / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total