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BAL 6 / LAA 1
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
LAALos Angeles Angels42%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
LAAHome starterSam AldegheriConfirmed
BAL58%ML -162
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
LAA42%ML +135

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.0 pts

Model has BAL at 58.3%, market implies 59% (via -151). Minimal comparison. Bradish's 81 IP and 9.44 K/9 makes him the stronger starter vs Aldegheri's 20 IP sample. Model's total of 9.31 vs market 9.0 is a minor 0.3-run gap—not actionable. No structural flags present.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -110 bovada / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Sam AldegheriLAA starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -159 betrivers / U +132 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-162 / +135BAL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total