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BAL 1 / LAA 5
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
LAALos Angeles Angels42%

at Angel Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
LAAHome starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
BAL58%ML -140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
LAA42%ML +118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.3 pts

Ryan Johnson's 12.83 ERA across 13.1 IP is a disaster; market correctly prices BAL as favorite. Model at 58.3% vs market 59.1% converges reasonably. Total: model predicts 8.51, market sets 9.0. Baz's 4.04 ERA in 89 IP is established competence vs Johnson's volatility. Lean under on total given Baz quality and Johnson's small sample likely regressing toward replacement level.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.5
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 bovada / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -139 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-140 / +118BAL / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total