MLB / mlb / live
TBR 0 / LAA 8TBRTampa Bay Rays53%
LAALos Angeles Angels47%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterGriffin Jax
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterJosé Soriano
TBR53%ML -116
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
LAA47%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -165 bovada / U +135 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 4.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-116 / -102TBR / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total