MLB / mlb / live
HOU 1 / LAA 10HOUHouston Astros46%
LAALos Angeles Angels54%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterKai-Wei Teng
Model pickLAA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterWalbert Ureña
HOU46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
LAA54%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.8 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but with only 1.2 IP (Ureña) and 2.1 IP (Teng) of season data—these are openers or bulk relievers, not traditional starters. The ace_matchup flag fired incorrectly on tiny samples. Model's 9.14 total vs market 8.5 is a 0.64-run gap, but without knowing actual starter usage patterns, I have no comparison. Pass on side and total.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105HOU / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total