MLB / mlb / live
TEX 6 / LAA 9TEXTexas Rangers55%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterJacob deGrom
Model pickTEX moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterGrayson Rodriguez
TEX55%ML -160
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
LAA45%ML +135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.9 pts
Model sees TEX at 55.2%, market implies 60.8% — rare case where market is more confident than model. deGrom at Angel Stadium (neutral park) argues for run suppression. Model's 9.06 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.56-run gap; pitcher stats are missing but deGrom's presence alone justifies leaning under. Structural miss on ace effect.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-160 / +135TEX / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total