MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / LAA 4NYMNew York Mets42%
LAALos Angeles Angels58%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLean
Model pickLAA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterReid Detmers
NYM42%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
LAA58%ML +111
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.7 pts
Model likes LAA at 58% vs market's 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Both teams 3.8 RPG, similar offensive profiles. Model total 8.98 vs market 7.5 is 1.48 runs apart—structural miss likely. With market_disagreement_large firing and thin pitcher samples (4.2 IP, 5.0 IP), defer to market on side. Lean over on total given model's run projection and Angel Stadium neutral park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.8
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +111NYM / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.8O -111 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total