MLB / mlb / live
TOR 4 / LAA 2TORToronto Blue Jays59%
LAALos Angeles Angels41%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterPatrick Corbin
Model pickTOR moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterJack Kochanowicz
TOR59%ML -106
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
LAA41%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap9.3 pts
Model likes TOR at 58.6% vs market's coin-flip 50.8%. Corbin's 1.69 ERA is fallback data—cannot trust. Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 4.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Model picks worse offense (.786 OPS) over better (.86 OPS) AND worse record—red flag. Pass total; market at 9.0 vs model 9.12 is aligned but pitcher data too weak.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -112TOR / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-174)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total