MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / LAA 2TORToronto Blue Jays56%
LAALos Angeles Angels44%
at Angel Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
LAAHome starterReid Detmers
TOR56%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
LAA44%ML +106
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.3 pts
Model predicts 9.21 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.71-run gap triggers structural concern. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite early but tiny sample. Detmers' 17.36 K/9 in 4.2 IP is also unsustainable. Model likely overweighting small-sample strikeout rates. Market total seems sharper; lean under. TOR pick is mild given tight market odds.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +106TOR / LAA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total