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OAK 2 / KCR 6
OAKOakland Athletics55%
KCRKansas City Royals45%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterGage JumpConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline55%Model 20260817_auto
KCRHome starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
OAK55%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
KCR45%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts

Model's 54.9% on OAK is roughly 10 points off the market's 55.8% on KCR, and it is siding with the team that has the worse record (49-78 vs 54-74). Dobnak's 1.73 ERA over 41.7 IP is not sustainable at 5.4 K/9 and a 1.30 WHIP, but Jump's 4.50 ERA offers no clear comparison back. Siding with the market's KCR price; no confident total view with a 1.09 park factor pulling against two sub-.520 OPS offenses.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 fanduel / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 betrivers / U -137 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -132OAK / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total