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OAK 7 / KCR 9
OAKOakland Athletics44%
KCRKansas City Royals56%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
OAK44%ML +155
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
KCR56%ML -186

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats, so the 2.83 vs 3.91 ERA gap is not attributable to actual pitchers. No market odds available, so no anchor for the model's 56.9% on KCR. Home field for a 53-74 club against a 49-77 club is the only defensible comparison. Total must pass with no line, though Kauffman's 1.09 park factor is the model's top total driver.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 bovada / U -149 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.555%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -186OAK / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -121 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total