MLB / mlb / live
CHC 6 / KCR 4CHCChicago Cubs52%
KCRKansas City Royals48%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
KCRHome starterDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed
CHC52%ML -172
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
KCR48%ML +146
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 draftkings / U -148 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K2.9Actual 2 K / Over 1.5
Best price at 1.51.5O -124 draftkings / U -103 draftkings1 book at this line
Model over 1.578%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%over
O 2.555%under
O 3.533%under
O 4.517%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-172 / +146CHC / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total