MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / KCR 3SFGSan Francisco Giants50%
KCRKansas City Royals50%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline50%Model 20260720_auto
KCRHome starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
SFG50%ML -110
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
KCR50%ML -108
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -149 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -141 betrivers / U +131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -108SFG / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total