MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / KCR 4SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
KCRKansas City Royals58%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline58%Model 20260720_auto
KCRHome starterMichael WachaConfirmed
SFG42%ML +103
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
KCR58%ML -123
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 fanduel / U -146 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+103 / -123SFG / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total