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SDP 6 / KCR 7
SDPSan Diego Padres39%
KCRKansas City Royals61%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline61%Model 20260713_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
SDP39%ML -125
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
KCR61%ML +103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.4 pts

Model has KCR at 60.5% but market implies 48.1% — a 12.4pp gap flags structural disagreement. King's 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are superior to Lugo's 4.56/1.43. SDP offense is weaker but the pitching comparison argues against KCR's confidence. Total at 10.5 looks high for two league-average offenses.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 betrivers / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -164 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +103SDP / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total