sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TBR 10 / KCR 4
TBRTampa Bay Rays56%
KCRKansas City Royals44%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
KCRHome starterNoah CameronConfirmed
TBR56%ML -116
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR44%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.2 pts

Model has TBR 55.8%, market implies 54.8% — minimal comparison. Model total 8.29 vs market 10.0 is a 1.7-run gap; likely the model underweights KCR's park factor (1.094). Jax's 3.33 ERA in 54 IP is solid but TBR's 0.0 RPG is a data error. Lean TBR, lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 betmgm / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-116 / -102TBR / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total