MLB / mlb / live
STL 5 / KCR 6STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
KCRKansas City Royals45%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
KCRHome starterSeth LugoConfirmed
STL55%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR45%ML +102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betrivers / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betmgm / U -160 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +102STL / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total