MLB / mlb / live
TEX 4 / KCR 2TEXTexas Rangers47%
KCRKansas City Royals53%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterKumar Rocker
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterMichael Wacha
TEX47%ML +100
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR53%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.4 pts
Model at 53.4% vs market 51.6% is near-consensus on KCR. Both pitchers solid (Wacha 3.44 ERA, Rocker 3.54 ERA in 10 starts each). Market total 10.5 vs model 9.11 suggests under, but 1.09 park factor and KCR offense (.518 OPS) argue caution. Lean home, lean under.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118TEX / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -106 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total