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HOU 10 / KCR 8
HOUHouston Astros46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%

at Kauffman Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterTatsuya Imai
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterLuinder Avila
HOU46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
KCR54%ML -112

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.9 pts

Model favors KCR 53.5% but market has HOU slight favorite at 52.4%. HOU's .695 OPS vs KCR's .518 is a meaningful comparison overlooked by model's short-window features. Imai's 5.24 ERA and Avila's 4.02 ERA in hitter park (PF 1.09) suggest 9.5 total is fair, lean under given model projects 8.88.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 fanatics / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Luinder AvilaKCR starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanduel / U +100 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-106 / -112HOU / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total