MLB / mlb / live
SEA 0 / KCR 5SEASeattle Mariners49%
KCRKansas City Royals51%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge Kirby
Model pickKCR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterStephen Kolek
SEA49%ML -126
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
KCR51%ML +108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6% KCR), market leans SEA at 55.2% implied. SEA offense much stronger (4.2 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.5/.518). Kirby's 1.50 ERA in limited IP is elite. Kolek lacks IP/ERA data despite 10 starts (data issue). Park factor 1.09 plus SEA's offense argues over 8.5.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-126 / +108SEA / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total