MLB / mlb / live
SEA 2 / KCR 0SEASeattle Mariners53%
KCRKansas City Royals47%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterNoah Cameron
SEA53%ML -115
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
KCR47%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.9 pts
Model has SEA 53.1%, market 54.6% — tight convergence. Noah Cameron's missing stats are concerning; full data_quality but null ERA/IP suggests incomplete tracking. Gilbert's 5.06 ERA with elite 11.81 K/9 shows volatility. Kauffman PF 1.09 and model total 9.11 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, supported by park factor driving total SHAP.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-115 / -104SEA / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total