MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / KCR 5CLECleveland Guardians56%
KCRKansas City Royals44%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin Williams
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterStephen Kolek
CLE56%ML -120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR44%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.5 pts
Model sees CLE 55.7%, market has them at 51.4% – minimal comparison. Model's 9.31 total is 1.8 runs over market 7.5, likely driven by Kauffman's 1.09 park factor and KCR's home power. Williams' 5.4 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Kolek has zero counting stats despite 10 starts which suggests data issue. Lean CLE on better offense (.600 vs .518 OPS) and over on park, but thin conviction.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +100CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total