MLB / mlb / live
LAA 1 / KCR 12LAALos Angeles Angels59%
KCRKansas City Royals41%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert Ureña
Model pickLAA moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterCole Ragans
LAA59%ML +128
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
KCR41%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap16.5 pts
Model favors LAA 58.6%, market has KCR at 57.9% — clear disagreement. Ragans' 9.0 ERA in 4 IP is absurdly small sample; Urena has 1.2 IP of data. Both pitcher profiles are noise. LAA's .860 OPS vs KCR's .518 OPS is a real 34-point gap. Lean LAA on offense, lean over on 8.5 given park factor 1.09 and thin pitching data.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152LAA / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total