MLB / mlb / live
LAA 9 / KCR 11LAALos Angeles Angels71%
KCRKansas City Royals29%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickLAA moneyline71%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterSeth Lugo
LAA71%ML +102
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
KCR29%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap23.4 pts
Model likes LAA at 71% vs market 48%. Lugo's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is noise; Detmers' 17.36 K/9 in 4.7 IP equally suspect. LAA's .860 OPS vs KCR's .518 is real. Park runs hot (PF 1.09). Total lean over 8.5.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin2.5
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -120LAA / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total