MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / KCR 6BALBaltimore Orioles57%
KCRKansas City Royals43%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickBAL moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterKris Bubic
BAL57%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
KCR43%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap11.7 pts
Model favors BAL 57.4% vs market's 46% (implied from +114). KCR offense is league-worst at 3.1 RPG/.518 OPS through 23 games. Bubic's missing stats and Baz's small sample (5.1 IP) make this murky. Market disagreement is large but BAL's offensive comparison is real.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130BAL / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total