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ATL 6 / HOU 2
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
HOUHouston Astros53%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
ATL47%ML -120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
HOU53%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts

Model leans HOU at 53.3% while market implies 47.8%, and the offense_defense_mismatch flag fits: ATL is 89-64 with a .789 OPS versus Houston's 77-76 and .695 OPS on 3.6 runs per game. Starters are near-even (3.71 vs 3.91 ERA), so I take the better team. Daikin Park at 0.81 park factor argues under the 8.0 line, not the model's 8.53.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100ATL / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total