MLB / mlb / live
CHW 2 / HOU 6CHWChicago White Sox40%
HOUHouston Astros60%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
CHW40%ML +138
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
HOU60%ML -164
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luis CastilloCHW starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 draftkings / U -120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.529%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -164CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total