MLB / mlb / live
ARI 4 / HOU 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks51%
HOUHouston Astros49%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline51%Model 20260831_auto
HOUHome starterEthan PeckoConfirmed
ARI51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
HOU49%ML -109
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -109ARI / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -122 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total