MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / HOU 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
HOUHome starterCristian JavierConfirmed
ARI46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -155 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130ARI / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total